Iran-Israel standoff, a prelude to regional war
Col (r) Ikram Ullah Khan
With Iran and Israel standing eyeball to eyeball against each other after Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrullah was killed by Israel, thereby prompting a barrage of missile attacks by Iran with 180 missiles targeting Israel’s military and security installations on 1 October 2024 to revenge Hassan Nasrullah’s killing, the stage is set for an all-out war which may engulf the entire region with a potential to rock the entire Middle East to the core. The middle East is once again on the brink of a damaging war between the two adversaries that have been in animus with each other for the past almost five decades.
The major world powers are standing at the crossroads finding themselves in a “to be or not to be” situation while the increasing tension of a looming war between the two countries has brought the region to the brink of disaster which may turn the entire Middle East into ashes.
It’s ominous to see Israel’s allies spearheaded by the US remain muted this time which had urged restraint on Israel in April this year when a similar situation had arisen after Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in an Israeli air attack and Iran had retaliated in a similar fashion. This time, Israeli prime Minister Netanyahu seems determined to take on all its enemies, i.e. Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran at once and is in no mood to hold back.
In such a belligerent atmosphere carrying an aura of retaliation, the US, instead of acting as a pacifier and peace maker, has come out openly in support of Israel and has announced in no uncertain terms to stand by it while holding Iran as an aggressor. When asked by news reporters yesterday about the possible attack by Israel on Iran , the US president Joe Biden is reported to have said, “Israel has the right to defend himself”.
So duly supported and emboldened by the US, Israel is well poised to attack Iran with full might any time with an intent to inflict a mortal blow on Iran, thus causing an irreversible damage to Iran’s vitals. In such an eventuality, what might Iran do then remains anybody’s guess. However, the bellicose posturing by both sides could escalate the situation into something far more devastating that one would imagine.
The inordinate bellicosity exhibited by both sides presents a theatre of war enticing enough to suck in more powers, thus impelling them to jump into the fray, thereby making the situation more intimidating and frightful.
As for Israel’s expected tit-for-tat attack on Iran, according to strategists and defence analysts, Israel may target Iran’s military and security installations at the most, as the US won’t let Israel cross the Rubicon by targeting Iran’s nuclear installations and economic infrastructures like Iran’s most vulnerable state assets that include its petrochemical plants, it’s power generation plants and oil refineries, etc because it will have a devastating impact on world’s economy. The West knows it well that any attack on Iran’s nuclear installations and economic infrastructures will elicit more fierce retaliatory response from Iran that will culminate in adversely impacting not only the US and Western economy but also the world’s economy in its entirety as the oil prices which currently range between 70 and 79 dollars per barrel may soar up to150 dollars.
As for Iran’s retaliatory response in the event of an Israeli attack, Iran has conveyed to the US via Qatar without mincing words that any Israeli attack would meet an “unconventional response” that includes targeting Israeli infrastructure. It has plainly conveyed to the US that unilateral self-restraint has ended as it doesn’t secure Iran’s national security requirements. According to Al Jazeera, in the message to the US, Iran has conveyed in unequivocal terms the need to curb Israel and its unbridled madness in the region.
As for the military power of Israel vis-à-vis Iran, there is no comparison between the two. When we compare the military might of the two adversaries, Israel is militarily more powerful than Iran as it’s a nuclear power with a huge nuclear arsenal at its disposal. In addition, Israel has the backing of the US and other Western powers. So Iran can’t defeat Israel militarily. It’s air defences are porous, its economy has been emasculated due to continued Western economic sanctions and it lacks backing of other Islamic countries. Yet it won’t be a cakewalk for Israel to vanquish Iran given its enormous quantity of long range ballistic and other missiles as well as explosive-laden drones and numerous allied proxy militias operating around the Middle East. According to a conservative estimate, Iran possesses around seven thousand ballistic missiles. It has an impregnable air defence as it so boastfully claims. It has the capability to target all the US military bases in the Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman when push comes to shove. It has warned that if attacked it won’t just hit back at Israel, it will target any country perceived to be supporting Israel. So the defence and strategic planners in Washington and Tel Aviv while planning war are not oblivious to these intimidating warnings.
In such a grim security scenario, the mysterious silence and passivity exhibited by the lone representative body of Muslim Ummah, the Organization of Islamic Countries/Conference (OIC) at a time when it’s expected to come out boldly and announce its unflinching support to Iran when the US and other Western powers have openly announced to stand by Israel against Iran, is not only unfortunate but also quite demoralizing for the entire Muslim Ummah.
Having said that, the ominous silence of OIC at this critical juncture, though unfortunate, is quite understandable as some of its important and powerful member countries whose say can make a material difference are those who have close business and diplomatic ties with the US and other major Western countries which they can ill afford to offend.
On the other hand, Iran is doing much more than what it can to fight US-backed Israel but being alone has its obvious limitations which the adversarial forces are capitalizing on to the most. Seeing the ostensible division and cleavage found among the Islamic countries, Israel and its supporters laugh up their sleeves and rejoice over it. They openly express their unity with Israel they have let loose to wreak havoc in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria and now Iran.
As for the likely Iran-Israel war remaining limited between both the adversaries, the concept of limited war doesn’t hold true any more these days. With the dynamics of war having undergone a complete metamorphosis, this concept is no more valid in today’s world of advanced war technology. The war once begun between two adversaries has all the potential to transform into a regional war and beyond, thus engulfing the entire region. The choreographers of war need to keep the fundamental question in mind, “can they afford a regional war and beyond”? I am sure the answer is a big “NO”.