Climate crisis in South Asia
Muhammad Faisal
South Asia now stands at a critical juncture as decades of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have destabilized once predictable weather patterns. In both India and Pakistan, climate change has ushered in an era marked by unprecedented extremes. The region is witnessing an unsettling paradox: prolonged periods of low rainfall, especially during winter, coexist with sudden, catastrophic downpours.
This erratic pattern not only endangers water security but also disrupts agriculture, infrastructure, and the daily lives of millions. For centuries, communities across South Asia have relied on predictable seasonal rains and snowfall to plan agricultural activities and manage water resources. Today, however, climate models and meteorological observations reveal a shifting paradigm. In Pakistan, for instance, the once-reliable winter rains have become sparse and erratic.
When these diminished rains do occur, the soil—parched from a prolonged dry spell—cannot absorb water quickly enough, leading to rapid surface runoff. This phenomenon is a prime driver of flash floods, as water inundated urban and rural areas alike before adequate drainage systems can cope. Similar shifts are now apparent in India, where altered monsoon patterns and a delay in the onset of rains have compounded issues of drought and subsequent flooding. The consequences of these abrupt changes are profound. Agricultural lands, which form the economic backbone of these nations, are increasingly exposed to a dual threat: on one hand, crops suffer from water scarcity during prolonged dry spells, and on the other, heavy rains destroy what little has been cultivated.
Moreover, the imbalance between extended droughts and sudden downpours stresses natural water systems. Rivers that once maintained a steady flow now oscillate between extremes—dry, meager flows punctuated by violent surges—which not only affects irrigation but also endangers aquatic ecosystems and the communities that depend on them. In response to these evolving threats, national governments in both India and Pakistan have enacted policies aimed at bolstering resilience. Pakistan’s updated National Climate Change Policy, for instance, outlines ambitious measures that include investments in climate-resilient housing, modernizing outdated irrigation networks, and establishing integrated early-warning systems for flood and drought events.
The central government’s strategy emphasizes coordinated action among federal, provincial, and local bodies—a critical step, given the multifaceted nature of the challenge. Yet, despite these well-intentioned policies, critics argue that the implementation has been frustratingly slow and, in many cases, inadequate. There is a growing concern that funds promised by international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and development banks are structured as loans rather than grants. This financing approach, while addressing immediate recovery needs, saddles the country with additional debt, making long-term climate adaptation efforts more challenging. For example, reports indicate that while millions have been pledged for post-flood reconstruction, the bulk of these funds have materialized as loans. Such financing models contribute to an unsustainable debt cycle, raising questions about the true cost of recovery when millions of people continue to live in precarious conditions. At the local level, the challenges are even more acute.
In regions like Chitral – nestled in the high mountains of northern Pakistan – the traditional balance between snowfall, glacial melt, and rainfall has been disrupted. Chitral’s economy, deeply rooted in subsistence agriculture and reliant on glacial-fed streams, is highly vulnerable to shifts in the water cycle. In recent years, unprecedented snowfall events combined with sporadic heavy rains have led to flash floods that devastate villages, wash away arable land, and destroy critical infrastructure. Local administrations in Chitral have attempted to mobilize emergency response measures.
District authorities, often in collaboration with local NGOs and community-based organizations, have organized relief distributions and temporary evacuations. However, these efforts are frequently hampered by logistical delays, a lack of modern communication technology, and inadequate early-warning systems. In many villages, residents have reported being caught off guard by sudden flash floods, which not only destroy homes but also erode the communal trust in the local government’s ability to protect lives.
Moreover, investment in physical infrastructure such as upgraded canal systems and reinforced flood defenses is inconsistent. Although some projects are underway—supported by international financing and government initiatives—the pace of construction and maintenance has not kept up with the growing demands imposed by climate extremes. Aging irrigation systems, plagued by sedimentation and structural deterioration, continue to perform poorly under the stress of irregular yet intense water flows.
The result is a cascading effect: inefficient water distribution exacerbates both crop failures and flood risks, leaving local communities caught in a perpetual cycle of crisis management and inadequate recovery. The central dilemma in addressing South Asia’s climate crisis lies in the gap between ambitious policy frameworks and ground-level realities. The effectiveness of current measures is hindered by several interconnected issues: The construction of flood defenses, irrigation canals, and early-warning systems is vital. However, delays in project implementation, combined with substandard construction practices, mean that new infrastructure often falls short of providing the necessary protection.
The level of modernization needed is vast—old structures must be retrofitted with state-of-the-art technology, and entirely new systems must be built to withstand unprecedented weather extremes. Despite calls for integrated water resource management and cross-departmental cooperation, bureaucratic inertia and overlapping responsibilities have slowed progress. Local governments, which are on the frontlines of disaster response, frequently face challenges in mobilizing resources quickly and efficiently. This fragmentation not only delays the deployment of critical measures during emergencies but also undermines long-term resilience planning. The reliance on loan-based funding for disaster recovery and adaptation projects places a heavy burden on countries like Pakistan.
While international institutions have stepped in with climate finance initiatives, the structure of these funds—as loans rather than grants—means that recovery efforts add to national debt. This debt burden limits the fiscal space available for proactive investments in infrastructure and capacity building, creating a vicious cycle where countries must continuously borrow to recover from disasters they did not cause. What is urgently required is a paradigm shift in how governments, both at the national and local levels, approach climate adaptation and disaster management. Policymakers must move beyond the current reactive framework and invest in anticipatory, resilient systems that address the root causes of vulnerability.
This includes Reforming Funding Mechanisms: International donors and financial institutions should prioritize grant-based financing for adaptation projects in vulnerable nations. Such a shift would alleviate the long-term debt burden and enable countries to invest more heavily in sustainable, resilient infrastructure. The deployment of advanced technologies—including real-time monitoring systems, automated flood defenses, and improved forecasting tools—must be accelerated. These technologies can help bridge the gap between policy intentions and on-the-ground realities, enabling faster and more effective responses to extreme events.
Strengthening Multi-Level Governance: Improved coordination between federal, provincial, and local governments is essential. Establishing dedicated inter-agency bodies with clear mandates for disaster preparedness and response can help streamline decision-making processes and ensure that relief and adaptation measures are both timely and adequately resourced. Community-Centric Adaptation Strategies: Local knowledge and grassroots organizations must be integrated into the planning and implementation process. Communities, especially those in remote areas like Chitral, possess valuable insights into historical weather patterns and effective traditional practices that can inform modern adaptation strategies. The climate crisis in South Asia is no longer a distant threat—it is a present reality that is reshaping the very fabric of societies in India and Pakistan.
The region’s shifting rainfall patterns, characterized by prolonged droughts and sudden, catastrophic floods, are wreaking havoc on agriculture, infrastructure, and human livelihoods. Although national and local governments have introduced policies aimed at building resilience, the current approaches often fall short due to outdated infrastructure, fragmented coordination, and financing models that add to the debt burden. To protect millions of vulnerable citizens, a comprehensive, well-funded, and technologically integrated approach is urgently needed.
Governments must work collaboratively with international agencies, private sector partners, and local communities to transform existing frameworks into proactive systems that not only respond to disasters but also anticipate and mitigate future risks. Only through such decisive, coordinated action can the region hope to build a resilient future in the face of an intensifying climate crisis.