Col (r) Ikram Ullah Khan
The unfortunate air strike by Iran inside Pakistani territory on January 16, 2024 in an attempt to target the anti-Iran militant outfit Jaish al Adl (forces of justice) allegedly hiding in the mountainous terrain of Balochistan, has come as a bolt from the blue.
The attack was absolutely unexpected and uncalled for as both the countries had been working together for quite sometime towards further cementing the bond of friendly relations between the two brotherly countries. The attack, on the face of it, appears to be part of a deep conspiracy hatched by our enemies aimed at pitting both the brotherly countries and neighbors against each other at a time when the Middle East is feeling the heat of Israeli aggression against Palestinians duly backed by the Western powers and calls for unity among the Muslim countries to stand united against Israeli aggression and come out openly in support of the oppressed Palestinians instead of getting embroiled in infighting.
Though the strike invited an immediate retaliatory quid pro quo, yet exercising an unprecedented restraint, Pakistan gave diplomacy a chance and asked Iran to apologize. On Iran’s mute response, Pakistan was left with no option but to give a measured response first by recalling its ambassador from Iran and asking Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan who was then in Iran not to come to Pakistan and then strike back on Thursday, 18 January targeting the rebel Baloch militants like BLA and BLF operating against Pakistan from Iranian territory, because the Iranian strike on the alleged militant hideouts in Balochistan as they claim had put Pakistan in an embarrassing situation. The strikes, according to ISPR, were conducted with 100% precision.
Moreover, Iran’s euphoric celebration in its media of the cross-border strike created a perception in the minds of Pakistani public which negatively impacted the much-elevated image of a strong military might of their country that they always carried, prompted the government to respond.
The BLA that has been operating in the region since 2000, has confessed in a statement that the strikes by Pakistan have killed its fighters, and vowed to take revenge. This terrorist outfit has been involved in attacks on Pakistani security forces and Chinese engineers and workers associated with CPEC. Pakistan named its operation “Marg Bar Sarmachar” (death to the militant fighters).
Had Pakistan not responded, it would have been viewed as a weakness on the part of Pakistan and would have sent a wrong message to the world, particularly to India.
It may be mentioned here that Pakistan and Iran share a 900-kilometer porous border allowing smugglers and militants to freely pass through the border between the two neighboring countries. This kind of unchecked movement of the non-state actors make it imperative for both Pakistan and Iran to evolve a mechanism to keep a vigilant eye on such unauthorized activities and check such illegal cross-border movements, and for that purpose, keep their radar and border defence system operational round the clock. Any laxity in this regard will cause recurrence of cross-border terrorist activities leading to an armed clash between the two neighbors.
The incident has a sordid background as both sides have been accusing each other for quite sometime of providing safe haven to the militant outfits in their respective territories.
However, notwithstanding all that, the issue could have been resolved through negotiations and diplomatic channels without having a recourse to an armed conflict which doesn’t augur well for both the Muslim neighbours who have been enjoying friendly relations throughout. The conflict has given an opportunity to the enemies of both the countries to laugh up their sleeves seeing both the neighbors taking their gloves off and ready for a bout.
The conflict not only imperils the diplomatic relations between the two neighbours but also puts the peace in the the entire region in jeopardy. The risk of escalation remains high as Iran’s military has reportedly begun its military exercise and air defence drill from its Chabahar port all across the south of the country. The exercise/drill includes live fire from aircraft, drone and air defence systems.
Last but not the least, China has jumped into the fray in a bid to mediate between Pakistan and Iran and de-escalate the situation which must be appreciated. China’s own interests are at stakes as any clash between Pakistan and Iran will deliver a mortal blow on the mega projects like CPEC operating under the umbrella of BRI.
Having said all that, it’s hoped that both sides will understand the gravity of the situation and the far-reaching repercussions of an armed clash on the economic health and security of both the countries besides its negatives consequences for regional peace and stability. Both sides need to see reason, appreciate the situation in its right perspective, exercise restraint, give preference to dialogue and diplomacy over brinkmanship and bellicosity, thrash out the irritants through discussions and negotiations instead of adopting a belligerent approach which will bring nothing but disaster to both the countries.
In this regard, major responsibility lies with the initiator of the clash. Both sides need to understand that at the end of the day, only the enemies of both the neighbors will be the ultimate beneficiary of any armed clash between the two brotherly countries. This is what the enemies of both the countries wish for.
. بہترین تجزیہ کیا ہے کرنل صاحب! ہم جیسے لوگ یہ سمجھتے ہیں کہ ان سب کے پیچھے ایک بڑا ہاتھ ہے جو چینا پاکستان اکنامک کوریڈور کو کسی نہ کسی طرح روکنا چاہتا ہے ورنہ دو برادر ملکوں کا ایک دوسرے پر حملہ عقل سلیم کے لیے قابل قبول نہیں یے۔ے