Economic revival, myth or reality
Col (r) Ikram Ullah Khan
The much-trumpeted phrase ‘economic revival’ used by the economic managers of the country has become a buzz word these days. Their claim of economic recovery, however, doesn’t carry weight when viewed through the prism of the dismal economic situation experienced by the common folk.
The other day when I asked a friend of mine, a reputed economist and a senior professor to opine on the government’s claim of economic revival, he rebutted the claim without demur by saying that the micro-economic as well as macro-economic indicators and the overall intimidating economic scenario prevailing in the country and adversely impacting the quality of life of a common man belonging to poor, lower-middle and even middle and upper-middle class tell a different story, thus strongly belying the government’s claim. His views surprisingly reverberated that of mine when he uttered what exactly was on the tip of my tongue and which I prefer not to mention here as it may not be palatable to the mind of all those who have been beating the drum of “sab achha’ or “all ok”.
The government’s claim, though aligns with its policy of consolation and pacification, assuredly fails to resonate with the views of those who are feeling the pinch of inflation when they go out to buy essential items of daily use, let alone paying the ever-escalating utility bills.
For a country that loses its economic balance, it’s extremely hard to make even a modest recovery from it, Pakistan being no exception to it. Despite the government’s tall claims of a resounding economic revival, the overall economic growth rate has remained sluggish due to myriad factors. The country has been navigating a challenging economic path and has endured a tough time to secure a 7 billion dollar extended loan facility from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that too only after meeting all its tough and distasteful conditionalities as the international lender kept shifting its goal posts throughout the prolonged and tortuous negotiations.
According to the latest data released by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), Pakistan’s economy grew by 0.92 % in the first quarter of the current fiscal year 2024-25, a steep fall from 2.3 % growth recorded in the corresponding period last year. The economic experts are of the view that the modest quarterly growth which the government claims to have achieved was mainly due to a nominal increase in the services sector as well as a modest rise in agricultural productivity. By the way, the agricultural sector which happens to be the backbone of Pakistan’s economy makes the most neglected sector. The successive governments have failed to pay due attention to this sector which it richly deserves. Moreover, the industrial sector has been shrinking over a period of time due to energy crisis afflicting this sector, thus dragging down overall economic performance.
Amidst all this dismal economic scenario, the only saving grace has been Special Investment Facilitation Council’s performance which has taken certain radical measures to suck in foreign investment, especially from friendly Gulf Countries including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, and is consistently making hectic efforts to achieve its ambitious target of 100 billion dollars Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) during the next four years. Besides, the robust measures taken by SIFC has contributed towards bringing stability in the value of rupee against the US dollar, thus bringing an overall economic stability, however marginal it may be. It has also infused confidence in the local investors, thus arresting the wild trend of capital flight.
When we look at the economic horizon of the country enveloped by thick dark clouds of economic uncertainty, we can still see a silver lining giving hope and confidence and projecting a bright economic future. The country has managed to stave off an economic default despite speculations made by dooms-day masters. The State Bank of Pakistan expects the GDP growth to stay in the upper half of the 2.5-3.5 pc range for FY 2025. Similarly, the IMF, going slightly on the upper side, projects a 3.2 pc economic growth defying all pessimistic outlook. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) also jacked up its forecast for Pakistan’s growth to 3pc, up from 2.8pc. All these are positive indicators of a better economic landscape.
Having said all that, the skyrocketing electricity and gas bills have broken the back of not only the low-income group but those belonging to middle and upper middle class too. Though, it doesn’t make much difference for the affluent and the elite class, it has made the life of an average earner miserable. They are finding it virtually hard to make both ends meet. Although, the prime minster and the energy/power minister never fail to console the public with promises to fix the problem without losing any time and provide relief to them, yet it seems that these promises will go unfulfilled like the previous ones if history of such promises is taken to be any guide.
Last but not the least, political leadership on both sides of the aisle need to realize that the dream of economic revival without political stability will remain a mirage. All the political leaders need to rise above petty personal considerations, exude patriotism and political maturity, iron out political differences, sit together and thrash out the issues that are creating fault lines, think in terms of national interest and try to understand that nobody is above the country as every one of us owes his very existence and identity to this great country. They need to understand that by creating mayhem, holding demonstrations, carrying out protest march, causing political chaos and spreading anarchy that in turn lead to economic instability, they are inadvertently fulfilling the enemy’s agenda. Our enemies through hybrid war want to see our beloved country deeply mired in political turmoil. They create a situation that would lead to economic instability so that they could achieve their objectives without waging a formal conventional war.
As part of hybrid war, our archenemy is funding the centrifugal forces and extremist outfits like BLA, BLF, PTM and TTP and then using them as a cat’s paw to achieve their nefarious objectives. Our political leaders should keep their eyes wide open and see what happened in Iraq, Libya, Syria and also what is likely to happen in Iran.
Long live Pakistan.