Amidst belated allegations of election rigging levelled by PTI, and a hard stance taken by its leadership as usual, the prospects of political stability on which the economic stability hinges, seem a remote possibility. With no single party securing a clear majority in the parliament, there seems no more than a snowball chance in hell of a strong government in the center.
After much procrastination, the PPP has finally decided not to join the coalition government with PML-N and also bow out of any kind of power sharing. After nearly five days trying to come up with a decision, Mr Zardari finally had a light bulb go on in his head about what he needed to do. Nevertheless, he has decided to support PML-N candidate for PM after having failed to woo PTI to join it to form a coalition government pushing PML-N to opposition benches. This unexpected move has left PML-N high and dry as it has made it vulnerable to the insurmountable difficulties it’s going to face alone in the absence of a strong coalition.
The PPP leadership seems to have played its cards very cleverly in order to save its political capital. However, as a quid pro quo for supporting PML- N candidate for PM, Asif Zardari would certainly present himself as a candidate for presidency. Being a highly shrewd and seasoned politician, he knows it well that it will be extremely hard for any coalition government to grapple with the formidable economic challenges.
In such a dismal political and economic scenario, joining the coalition government, Zardari might have thought, would be a bad option. The way political wheeling and dealing is being done, it\’s destined to end up in an extremely weak coalition. The nation has already experienced a failed coalition in the shape of PDM government that badly failed to deliver. A repeat of such a coalition won’t be a wise political decision.
As for peripheral political entities like MQM, pML (Q) and others, they haven’t yet decided to join any possible coalition, and have preferred to adopt a wait-and-see policy. They appear to be in a comfortable position to capitalize on the fluid political situation and are likely to benefit from it the most. However, JUI has declined to join the coalition government.
Having said all that, the possibility of a change of heart in the PPP leadership can’t be ruled out and it may take an eleventh-hour decision to join the coalition, as politics is an art of possible. If that happens, the coalition government may stand a better chance to survive and cope up with the intimidating economic and political challenges in a better way.
Quite shockingly, though expectedly, no one is bothered about the ever-worsening economic situation the country is experiencing with the skyrocketing inflation and unemployment, thus creating a stagflationary situation that has made it well-nigh impossible for a common man, particularly the salaried group, to make both ends meet.
The country is experiencing an economic meltdown with insurmountable macroeconomic challenges that the newly-elected government is going to confront anyway. It’s not going to be a bed of roses for any coalition government, particularly a weak coalition. It certainty is going to be very difficult for the new government to meet the formidable economic challenges like growing external debt, entering into a fresh agreement with IMF to secure a longer and larger economic bailout package, as the current standby loan arrangement ends in April this year.
It’s pertinent to mention here that entering into a new loan agreement with the IMF will be a compulsion as the government’s ability to secure loans and financial aids from other commercial entities like World Bank and Asian Development Bank, etc., and multilateral lenders will be contingent on entering into a fresh IMF loan agreement as it has always been the case. Moreover, the IMF loan is also needed not only to stave off the looming risk of an economic default but also to bring foreign investment which is the only viable option to secure perennial economic stability.
The economic team of the new government is going to face the brunt of tough economic challenges as it may not be that easy to deal with the IMF and convince it to lower their stringent loan conditionalities to a bearable level on the one hand and satisfy the public to brace themselves for more price hike in gas and energy tariff on the other, which is going to be a prime demand from IMF besides radical economic reforms to be undertaken by the government.
Coming back to political uncertainty with it’s grave repercussions on economic stability, it was generally presumed that 8 February’s general elections will reduce the political instability in the country. However, the unexpected election results that have come like a shot out of the blue for the political analysts ad other quarters, with no party securing a clear majority, has intensified the post-election chaos, which would badly impinge upon the prevailing economic uncertainty and would make it difficult for the elected government to continue with the economic reforms initiated by the caretaker government.
In such a dismal political and economic scenario, the only light visible at the end of the tunnel is the initiative taken by military-backed Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), as people are pinning lot of hopes on it with the belief that it will play a pivotal role to reduce the economic uncertainty gripping the country and would continue working hand in glove with the newly-elected government and succeed in bringing huge foreign investment. This is the only way to bring much-needed economic stability.
Lastly, whichever political party sits in the opposition, (most likely the PTI), must make it a point that it would play a positive role and do responsible opposition in the larger interest of the country. The political leadership across the political spectrum needs to understand that in a parliamentary system of government, a strong opposition with constructive approach makes a bedrock of the democratic process.