Col (r) Ikram Ullah Khan
Amidst a heightened military tension and security threats gripping the Middle East, a trilateral defence pact between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey known as the “Makkah Joint Defence Agreement” was signed on 7 August 2026 in Makkah, near the holiest site for the Muslims across the globe. The mere fact that the Holy city of Makkah was chosen as the venue for signing the pact among the three most powerful Muslim countries carries a symbolic significance of the pact conveying an implicit message to the West regarding the unity of the Muslim Ummah as one community to stand up against the adversarial forces when the balloon goes up.
Besides, the basic aim of the agreement is to strengthen defence cooperation and establish a joint defence mechanism among the three countries with no offensive ambitions. The pact is solely defensive in nature and is not intended for aggression against any country. It’s just to ensure joint defence of all the three countries against any foreign aggression. The aim of the agreement is quite manifest from the statement that clearly stipulates that an armed aggression against one country would be considered as an attack on all three.
The defence pact is seen by security analysts as a prelude to a wider alliance among the Muslims States as it remains open to the participation of other regional states. More Muslim countries are likely to follow suit and form an alliance on the lines of NATO. While the agreement may initially appear to be an attempt to establish a strong security framework in the region, a closer scrutiny of the pact raises quite a few eyebrows about its practical utility and effectiveness given the peculiar regional security environment and interrelationship among the regional players. However, the agreement has the potential to recalibrate regional security dynamics and reshape the geo-strategic and geo-political landscape of the region.
Although, negotiations regarding the tripartite defence pact had been going on for more than a year, the US-Israel joint operation against Iran in February this year which elicited a fierce retaliation from the latter targeting the US bases in the Gulf countries making them extremely vulnerable to foreign aggression, made the defence agreement a dire necessity. Moreover, the closure of Bab al-Mandab in the Red Sea by Houthis, an Iranian proxy, and its attacks on Saudi oil tankers carrying Saudi oil precipitated the agreement.
For long, Saudi Arabia had been seeking to expand defence and strategic cooperation with powerful regional partners as it has been facing a range of security threats from multiple fronts. Saudi Arabia’s reorientation of its foreign policy towards broader framework of political and security issues stems from the perceived threats emanating from forces operating in and around its borders and in the region. The US’ failure to protect Gulf countries from foreign attacks has impelled Saudi Arabia to shed dependency on the US alone and instead, look for more reliable security partners that could ensure its security.
Saudi Arabia had a growing realization that it’s previous efforts to build regional alliance couldn’t see the light of day and that establishing multilateral frameworks doesn’t and can’t translate into the formation of an effective and formidable military alliance. For example, “Operation Decisive Storm” coalition launched in 2015 alongside Saudi Arabia’s military campaign in Yemen came to an abortive end. Saudi Arabia wooed broad Arab and Islamic support for the operation but received lukewarm response with many members providing only political and diplomatic backing, thus leaving Saudi Arabia to fight a lone battle. Another example was the “Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition carrying the acronym (IMCTC) formed in 2015, but the coalition failed to develop into a unified operational force with a clearly defined mission.
Although the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement has finally been signed, it’s likely to face daunting challenges when it comes to implementation. For defence agreements of this stature to be translated into a potent alliance, they typically require joint command structure, effective intelligence coordination and a comprehensive logistical infrastructure which is likely to hamper it’s smooth sailing to begin with. The sparse details available about the agreement don’t suggest that such arrangements have been put in place well in advance which could ensure its smooth functioning.
Last but not the least, the three member states of the joint pact have their own priorities and security compulsions. For example, Saudi Arabia’s main priority remains security challenges posed by Iranian-backed Houthis operating around its borders, unhindered shipping of its oil and an overall economic development in the Gulf region, Pakistan prioritizes security concerns related to Indian hegemonic designs and terrorist outfits operating within and outside it’s borders duly backed by India, while Turkey places greater emphasis on border security and resolution of issues with Syria and Eastern Mediterranean. These divergent priorities may pose serious challenges for the joint pact to be effective. Having said that, this is a good beginning which may ultimately lead to a broader Muslim Alliance which is the need of the hour.