Col (r) Ikram Ullah Khan
With both the US and Iran sticking to their guns and not prepared to budge even an inch from their hard stance, threats of a military conflict are looming large over the horizon eclipsing the prospects of negotiations for a deal to succeed. Both the countries are rapidly sliding towards an armed conflict as hopes for a diplomatic solution seems to fade away with every passing day over Iran’s nuclear program.
So far, there has been no meaningful headway in the talks.The two rounds of indirect negotiations held in Oman and Geneva suggest that the chances of making a deal sound a remote possibility.
Ever since Donald Trump has come to power, he has assumed a high-intensity offensive posturing regarding Iran by amassing an unprecedented military build-up in the Middle East, thus showcasing the US’ formidable might to coerce Iran into a meek submission and make a deal on US dictated terms which seems well-nigh impossible.The US president needs to understand that any nation with even a grain of honour won’t accept any such deal that compromises it’s honour and dignity to the core.
My personal humble assessment which aligns with that of most of the seasoned analysts having a sound knowledge of strategic and defence matters is that Iran will never go for any such deal which may compromise its honour as a proud nation despite the fact that Trump is using every tool at his disposal to browbeat Iran into reaching a deal on his terms and is adamant on getting the job done under the gunpoint, but Iran isn’t prepared to make a deal under duress.
Having said all that, it’s extremely difficult to make prognosis regarding the probable course of action that would be unfolding in the coming few days given the highly mercurial nature of a man who is famed for his unpredictability featuring as his forte.
Currently, President Trump is facing a catch-22 situation making it extremely hard for him to make a decision. He is found blowing hot and cold using carrot and stick at the same time. If he goes into war, it would be an extended war as viewed by seasoned defence analysts and is destined to prolong not for weeks or months but for years, and may turn out to be another Afghanistan for the US; but if he backtracks from the intended mission at this stage without achieving it’s objectives, it will deliver a mortal blow on the myth of the US’ invincibility.
Iran has categorically conveyed to the US that its missile programme being non-negotiable is off the table; however, it is inclined to negotiate a deal on its nuclear program which it says it has the right as a signatory of the Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes like generating electricity, etc. But one thing is decidedly clear that president Trump wouldn’t allow Iran to develop it’s nuclear program to even near a level that may enable it to go nuclear anytime in the future.
According to nuclear experts, if Trump shows sublime magnanimity, he may agree up to 20 per cent uranium enrichment at the most under the strict surveillance of the IAEA, the nuclear watchdog. In such a scenario, it remains to be seen whether or not it becomes acceptable to Iran.
Reports emanating from different credible sources suggest that both the countries could be rapidly proceeding towards military conflict as a diplomatic solution to their standoff over Iran’s nuclear program remains elusive. Donald Trump is reportedly weighing various options including limited air strikes on specific targets deep inside Iran as it did in last June, Venezuelan type operation in order to capture Iran’s top leadership as it did with the Venezuelan president Maduro, and a regime change that according to Trump would be the best thing to happen. But all these options sound a mission impossible given the expected fierce retaliatory response from Iran. President Trump is well aware of the fact that it wouldn’t be an easy walkover for the US to enter Iran and do whatever it likes. Without boots-on-ground operation, it won’t be possible to achieve the desired objective.
Defence and strategic analysts sound pessimistic about the prospects of a deal being reached to avert a military confrontation. With the US building up one of the biggest military deployments in the region since the invasion of Iraq in 2003, military confrontation between the US and Iran seems a writing on the wall.
In such a dismal scenario, Israeli prime minister Netanyahu who is the great beneficiary of the US-Iran standoff sees an impasse between the two and is reportedly preparing for possible joint military action with the US against Iran as they did in last June, but this time more fiercely and decisively. If this happens, it will spin out of control and destabilize the entire Middle East with far-reaching ramifications for the entire world.
The US being a sole super power wielding an overwhelming clout over the world affairs needs to show large-heartedness and shouldn’t insist on divesting Iran of its peaceful nuclear program. It needs to understand that war is no solution as it will bring nothing but devastation of biblical proportions the reverberations of which will be felt by the entire world for long. Both the adversaries need to find a peaceful and mutually acceptable solution to the longstanding nuclear dispute, and for that to happen, both sides will have to meet each other halfway and find a middle ground. Diplomacy must work and find a peaceful solution which could be acceptable to both the countries.
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