Col (r) Ikram Ullah Khan
In a surprising yet expected strategic move, President Donald Trump has decided to make a reentry into Afghanistan, this time not using force but through a discreet diplomacy and negotiations.
This resurgence of US interest in Afghanistan is quite understandable due to a host of reasons, the strategic significance of Afghanistan topping the list.
It may be recalled that Donald Trump had slammed the US ex-President Joe Biden for making a hasty exit from Afghanistan which according to him, compromised US national security interests, particularly by leaving behind a massive number of weapons and a huge quantity of ammunition worth billions of US dollars and abandoning Bagram air base which enabled the Taliban to use them to their advantage and strengthened their position vis-a-vis the US, a power which still remains invincible and lone superpower.
After resuming power in January this year, President Trump now seems determined to regain influence in Afghanistan through diplomacy and without resorting to the use of brutal force being duly aware of its disastrous consequences for the US. It’s also pertinent to mention here that Donald Trump during his presidential electioneering had expressed his intentions to reclaim the famous Bagram air base located north of Afghan capital Kabul after coming to power. This important air base which remains the US’ Achilles heel due to its strategic significance, served as the command node for American and allied NATO forces for two decades as they fought against the Taliban.
This air base was captured by the Taliban soon after the NATO forces vacated it. President Trump is reported to have said that the US was planning to return to the base in order to thwart China’s move to take over it because it\’s claimed that the base allegedly hosts Chinese troops, a claim that still remains unconfirmed.
“We are going to keep Bagram air base not because of Afghanistan but because of China, because the air base is exactly at one hour drive from where China makes its nuclear missiles”, President Trump is quoted to have said.
Now, almost four years down the line, the US, under the new Trump administration again wants to reestablish its influence in Afghanistan by seeking control of the strategically important Bagram air base in order to neutralize China’s ever-rising clout in Afghanistan.
As for US latest initiative regarding reestablishing its influence in Afghanistan, there are speculations about a mysterious US military flight to Afghanistan last week reportedly carrying senior US intelligence officials and some military equipment, thus sparking rumours that the top Taliban leadership has agreed to hand over Bagram air base to US, which the Taliban spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid has outrightly contradicted. However, it looks a lot is going on behind the scenes.
In this regard, as a further step taken by Trump administration, for the first time after US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, a high-powered US delegation led by veteran Afghan expert Zalmay Khalilzad visited Kabul in March, apparently to secure the release of a detained American tourist, George Glezmann, but experts on Afghan affairs believe that seizing the golden opportunity, they must have held talks with the Taliban leadership to place Bagram air base under US control. It is pertinent to mention here that Qatar facilitated American delegation’s visit to Kabul. Why is there seen a thaw in the US-Taliban relations? It’s a million dollar question which remains unanswered. Will the Taliban leadership hand over Bagram air base to the US? It again defies a definite answer.
According to security analysts, US withdrawal from Afghanistan had left a void that had to be filled by some power, and the US believes it could be none else but its archrival China.
Since the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan following the hasty US withdrawal in August 2021, the war-torn Afghanistan has been facing legitimacy crisis leading to lack of recognition by the world, including the Muslim world due to the hard line taken and radical views held by the Taliban leadership with regard to women’s emancipation and political pluralism. Though their conservative views regarding women’s observance of Islamic dress code, opposition to their movement outside their houses unaccompanied by a “Mehram”, an Islamic term used for a close relative like father, brother and son, and co-education and free mixing of males with females are perfectly in step with the commandments given in the Holy Qura’n, yet some of the extreme measures taken with respect to women\’s education, like putting a ban on getting admission in colleges and universities for higher education, doing jobs in different departments and the like can’t be defended as they run counter to the lofty teachings of Islam. Besides, Taliban are not favourably disposed to forming a broad-based government that could accommodate all the ethnic groups and political entities.
So sensing the Taliban’s desperate need for legitimacy and world recognition, the US now seems to capitalize on this point and initiate a dialogue with the Taliban to woo them to come to terms with the US and agree to hand over Bagram air base to them as a quid pro quo for US support for world’s recognition of Taliban regime, a tough proposition for the Taliban to deal with and hard to accept due to its far-reaching and wide-ranging ramifications. They find themselves in a predicament and are placed between the hammer and the anvil. This is really a litmus test of the Taliban leadership. Whether or not they have the ability and guts to tackle this highly tricky problem successfully and come out smelling like a rose, remains to be seen.