Amid growing fears that Russian President Putin may resort to using nuclear arms in Ukraine to stave off a possible rout of his invading forces after Ukrainian army launched a doughty counter-offensive against them, the threat of nuclear war is looming large on Ukraine’s murky horizon.
This grim senario of a possible nuclear attack has emerged after the recent setbacks faced by the Russian military, creating a major embarrassment for Russian president Putin, and sparking unusual criticism by the Russian public of the country’s military. This distasteful development has impelled Putin to threaten to use all possible means at his disposal to defend every single inch of Russian territory including the recently annexed four Ukrainian regions.
According to Western defence analysts, Russian president hurled the threat at a time when Russian troops were reportedly in retreat in the face of a the latest Ukrainian counter-offensive backed by the US and its allies. Reports suggest that in recent weeks, Ukrainian army has recaptured large swathes of territory in a successful counter-offensive that has forced Russian troops to abandon long-held positions including the territory in the four Ukrainian regions Russia annexed recently, thus creating a huge embarrassment for Putin.
According to a news item published in one of the Brirish broadsheet newspapers “The Guardian”, Poland – a NATO member country, has asked the US to deploy nuclear weapons on its territory to ward off the chances of possible use of nuclear weapons by Russia against Ukraine. Polish president Andrzej Duda reportedly expressed his willingness to take part in nuclear sharing, and facilitate the US to carry nuclear bombs which are stored on Poland’s territory. He is quoted as saying:
“We have spoken with American leaders about whether the United States is considering such a possibility. The issue is open”.
Seasoned defence analysts believe that Poland has raised the issue at a time when the prospects of nuclear weapons use are higher than at any time since the cold war. However, they play down the request from Poland and view it as mere symbolic, and tend to believe that the US may not consider such a request given the obvious catastrophic consequences it carries because such a move would provide Russia with an excuse to go for a nuclear option thereby pushing the world towards a nuclear war. However, the US has warned of catastrophic consequences without specifying what those would be if Putin resorted to using nuclear weapons. An official in Washington dealing with defence matters is quoted as saying:
“There are ongoing discussions about various scenarios and how we might react”.
According to defence analysts, the dilemma facing the Western military planners at the moment is to find such a way that escalation doesn’t spin out of control leading to a nuclear war between Russia and the US/NATO, and that Putin doesn’t benefit militarily from using nuclear weapons. They are of the view that the use of tactical nuclear weapons (which Russia is believed to possess in a large number) against Ukrainian military targets, with the aim of forcing Ukraine into surrender and accept Russian terms, would elicit a wide range of responses from the West short of use of nuclear weapons from the US and its Western allies that could include further sanctions, including sanctions targeting any country buying Russian oil, stepping up arms supply to Ukraine including long-range missiles and fighter jets that Ukraine has been demanding right from the beginning.
Although, the move of such nuclear deployment is widely seen as a mere deterrence to contain the risk of escalation to an all-out nuclear war, but if the strategy fails, it would certainly lead to a nuclear hollocaust. Moreover, the US defence experts have the situation analysis that if US deploys nuclear weapons on Poland’s territory, it would impel Russia to base its nuclear weapons on the territory of neighbouring Belarus as a tit-for-tat response thus bringing both the nuclear giants to an eye-ball-to-eye-ball confrontation.
Moreover, nuclear experts are of the view that moving US nuclear weapons into Poland would be a violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the NATO-Russia Founding Act 1997 after the end of cold war in which NATO stated that it had no plan to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of any NATO member country. They believe it makes little strategic sense for Poland or NATO to urge the US to go for such deployment.
Defence analysts are of the view that there is a strong possibility that Russia could resort to the use of nuclear weapons if it suffers setback on the battlefield. However, they believe that there are less chances of a surprise nuclear attack by Russia. There will be more warnings before nuclear attack. Nuclear experts believe that nuclear weapons have more utility when they are used as a deterrent. Crossing the threshold would be catastrophic. But if the survival of the country or the regime is at stake, then nuclear weapons could be used; that’s exactly nuclear weapons are intended for.
While talking to fellow democrats, President Biden also hinted at Putin’s intentions to use nuclear weapons as he is reported to have said: “The Russian leader (Putin) had not been “joking” when he talked about using tactical nuclear, biological or chemical weapons”.
Though, an imminent nuclear war appears a remote possibility, yet any miscalculation on either side may make it happen. Sanner elements from both sides do have the cognizance that it’s not a child’s play to go for a nuclear option as it entails human catastrpophe of biblical magnitude. The world has already undergone the harrowing experience of a nuclear catastrophe when two nuclear bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945 killing 226,000 people most of whom were civilians. The leadership from both side understand that nuclear war once it breaks out, wouldn’t remain confined between Russia and the US/NATO; it has the potential to engulf the entire globe which the world can ill afford.